Why resilience must increase alongside capacity

At this week’s Airlines 2025 event, I joined peers from across the sector to discuss capacity and resilience in UK aviation. It highlighted a simple truth: growth alone will not deliver for passengers – resilience must increase with capacity. That’s the standard the industry is working to, and it’s how the UK will stay competitive.

Resilience is not the absence of disruption. In a globally interdependent system, adverse weather, technical issues and unexpected events are inevitable. True resilience is the ability to prevent what we can, contain what we can’t prevent and recover safely together. The UK aviation system performs well under pressure, but it operates close to its limits and even small issues can create disproportionate disruption. New capacity must be designed not just to accommodate growth, but to create headroom and flexibility that allows the system to recover faster when disruption occurs.

Despite these pressures, the everyday performance of UK aviation deserves recognition. Most days run smoothly because thousands of professionals apply discipline and judgement that passengers never see. That quiet consistency is a competitive strength we should be proud of, but it must now be matched by a collective determination to modernise and build the resilience tomorrow’s network will need.

This summer showed what this looks like in practice. We safely managed around 25% of European flights with an average of just 2% NATS-attributable delay. Heathrow delivered one of its strongest punctuality performances in years, and Gatwick saw major improvements in first-wave departures through closer coordination between the airport, airlines and our teams at NATS. With European air traffic up 3.3% (Eurocontrol), we collectively managed the peaks more effectively because planning and decision-making were aligned. That was not luck, it was careful collaboration.

Many airports are busier than ever and demand continues to rise. It’s clear that the UK needs more capacity, but capacity alone is not enough if we want a network that is as resilient as it is busy. The challenge is to design and use new capacity in ways that strengthen resilience and make the system more adaptable when pressure builds. However, we will only realise the full benefit of new ground infrastructure and the latest aircraft technology if we modernise the airspace above. Much of the UK’s route structure is decades old. It serves us well, but it was not designed for today’s traffic levels, modern navigation or digital capabilities.

Modernising airspace improves capacity, and in doing so, strengthens resilience by giving the system greater flexibility to recover when things don’t go to plan. It makes the network more predictable for pilots and controllers, reducing delays and unnecessary emissions. Since 2007, NATS has delivered steady operational improvements that enable a reduction of around 1.8 million tonnes of CO₂ each year, roughly the same as removing 400,000 petrol cars from the road. These changes are often multi-year projects that are subject to thorough testing, consultation and safety assurance. They rarely make headlines, yet they are improving reliability for millions of passengers every month.

The next step is to move from these incremental changes to transformational change. Once established, our government appointment to deliver the UK Airspace Design Service will focus on the most complex areas of UK airspace, where the greatest benefits for capacity, resilience and sustainability can be realised. Its impact will be felt nationwide, strengthening connectivity from the South East to every region of the UK and beyond. It marks the next significant phase in modernisation, however, there are still details to be worked through in defining the processes required to support it.

Technology is also proving what’s possible when innovation and operational delivery come together. At Heathrow and Gatwick, we have introduced Intelligent Approach – a world-first tool that uses real-time wind and wake data to optimise spacing on final approach, cutting arrival delays and reducing holding without changing runway infrastructure. At Heathrow alone, this has reduced headwind delays by around 62%. Gatwick is using computer vision technology on stands and a collaborative operational platform that gives the airport, airlines and air traffic control the same live picture of the day. Airlines are renewing fleets and using richer data in collaboration with NATS to drive their daily decisions, and ground handlers are standardising proven processes across multiple airports. These examples add up to significant gains throughout the day.

The next decade will shape the UK’s aviation capability, and its focus must be on delivery: turning plans into progress and momentum into results. We’re recruiting 600 controllers into the business throughout the current regulatory period (2023–2028), strengthening the workforce needed to meet future demand. We’re also consulting on airspace changes with Edinburgh and Glasgow Airports to reshape some of the most complex parts of Scottish airspace.

Decisions on runways, airspace and sustainability will define how connected and competitive the UK remains. Our role is clear: to keep the skies safe. That means maintaining momentum on modernising airspace, sustaining investment in technology and deepening collaboration across the sector. Building resilience is not a single project but a shared commitment. If we hold that heading, capacity will grow in ways that make the system stronger, giving aviation the resilience to adapt, recover and keep passengers moving whatever the challenge.